Climate science still doing its best

How many bad predictions does it take to disbelieve climate scientists? 

In a published letter in Nature Climate Change on 22 December, it was report that global warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing regions throughout the world. The researchers tested 30 computer models … to establish the most likely scenario.

But in the real world it is reported that:

Global wheat production set new records in 2013 and 2014 …Not only are global wheat yields not declining, they are rising at a spectacular pace. According to objective US Department of Agriculture data, global wheat yields have risen by 33 per cent since 1994.

But the Nature Climate Change report with its 30 computer models assures us:

In recent decades, wheat yields had declined in hotter sites such as in India, Africa, Brazil and Australia …

But in the real Indian world it is reported that:

Indian farmers are poised for a record wheat harvest this year of 96 million tonnes, up some 3.5 million tonnes year on year and beating the previous record of 94.9 million tonnes set in 2012, the US Department of Agriculture’s New Delhi bureau said.

And Brazil?

Harvest of the 2014 wheat crop is almost concluded. Early official estimates point to a bumper crop of almost 7.5 million tonnes, or 30 per cent above last year’s good level and record …

And Africa?

Wheat production in Egypt has quadrupled during the past three decades, with the past 10 years producing the 10 highest wheat crops in Egyptian history … Africa’s second largest wheat producer, Morocco, produced its largest wheat crop in history in 2013 … South Africa also produced record wheat yields in 2014 …

And finally Australia?

This year’s Australian wheat crop … is nearly four times as large as the 1972 wheat crop.

Oh dear. What to make of those pesky models and climate science?

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