Archive for March, 2011

European ETS very costly and totally useless

March 9, 2011

Listen to the EC’s National Expert on Carbon Markets and Climate Change

I first heard an interview with Jill Duggan, the visiting European Unions National Expert on Carbon Markets and Climate Change on ABC television earlier this week. Confidently telling us how good the European action was and how important it would be for Australia to do something similar, it was frustrating to listen to because, as usual, the ABC never asks the right questions.

Therefore, how utterly delicious it was to hear the very next day, as if in answer to a prayer, Andrew Bolt interviewing this important expert but this time asking exactly the two questions that nobody from our compliant media even thinks of asking Julia Gillard or Wayne Swan.

How much will the scheme cost?

Exactly what effect will it have?

The answers for Europe are one quarter of a trillion dollars per year, and one twentieth of one degree celsius over one hundred years.

In arabic numberals that is $250,000,000 $250,000,000,000/year for 0.05C/100 years but the “expert” didn’t know the answers.

Bolt: … Jill. You see this is what I’m curious about; that you’re in charge of a massive program to re-jig an economy. You don’t know what it costs. And you don’t know what it’ll achieve.

Duggan: Well, I think you can look at lots of modelling which will come up with lots of different costs.

Bolt: Well what’s your modelling? That’s the one that everyone’s quoting. What’s your modelling?

Duggan: Well, ah, ah. Let me talk about what we have done in Europe and what we have seen as the benefits …

Read the full transcript and ask yourself, exactly how does a person like this manage to get passed off with respect as an expert by our ABC. This is truly disgraceful.

Sarkozy on the nose

March 7, 2011

Mon dieu

Things are looking grim in France, not only for the Left, but for President Nicolas Sarkozy.

There are another fourteen months to the Presidential elections, but in a poll published today in Parisien-Aujourd’hui , it looks like Marine le Pen of the Front National could become the next French President. The poll looked at several combinations of candidates getting through the first round, each with Sarkozy, and each combination gave le Pen as the winner.

This news has hit the French political establishment of all colours like a “coup de tonerre”. Fourteen months of course is a tres longue time in politics, but in a country paralized by a socialist culture, intractable problems with its immigrants and high unemployment, the poll is sure to “touiller la salade”.

[From reader Andrew R]

GILLARD SINKS

March 7, 2011

Surely this will be hard to ignore? 

The much awaited Newspoll is out on what Australians think of Julia Gillard’s new carbon tax.

JULIA Gillard’s carbon tax plan has sent Labor’s primary vote support reeling to its lowest level on record, with the Prime Minister also suffering a significant slide in her personal standing.

The latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian, reveals Labor’s primary vote has fallen from 36 per cent two weeks ago to 30 per cent, below the 31 per cent record when Paul Keating was prime minister in 1993, as the Coalition rose four points to 45 per cent.

Labor now trails the Coalition by eight per cent. ALP is now at 46 per cent, to the Coalition’s 54 per cent.

 

Mackellar’s lesson learned

March 7, 2011

But not yet for the warmists

The meme of droughts and flooding rains has really taken hold. Having, like Clive James, studied and learned “I love a sun burnt country” in primary school, I had always understood that Australia was just that. Nothing in my education had suggested anything different. I posted the poem in its entirety on my blog in early December , thanking Dorothea Mackellar posthumously for her rigorous historical documentation of climate change, written before any real increases in industrial atmospheric carbon di-oxide, and before our modern, scientific understanding of the Indian Ocean Dipole or the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

Clive James had a wonderfully enjoyable piece in Southpoint Magazine, reprinted in latest Weekend Australian, reflecting on the small mindedness of our former Australian of the Year.

Professor Flannery was heard all the time, and always predicting that the major cities would run out of water. The nice thing about him was that he was without guile and therefore ready to say that a certain city would run out of water in some verifiable time: say, two years.

Two years later, abundant rain would be falling on that city. But he always had an explanation, and the media always liked his story best, because it was a story about Australia eventually and inevitably running out of water, even though what appeared to be water might currently be seen to be falling out of the sky. Then an awful lot of it fell on his head at once and he was finally seen to be short of credibility.

Unfortunately, not for the Gillard Government and our commentariat. During the latter stages of the drought, I started thinking of Professor Flannery as Tim Flummery, after his sloppy and approximate approach to weather forecasting. The wags in Sydney, after their first summer of inundations following his groundless predictions, should have named the second month of the year after him — January, Flannery, March …

But James’ deeper message brought back memories of constant frustration in my former regular appearances as a commentator on ABC 774 Melbourne with Jon Faine. Whenever there was a very hot day, or cold day, or rainy day, Faine would contrive to say that it was the hottest, the coldest the wettest day on record, without a wit of evidence — a first requirement for an ABC warmist. I eventually down-loaded a document from the University of Melbourne’s Department of Earth Sciences that contained all the record temperatures, cold and hot, for every day of the Melbourne year going back to the 1860’s. Faine was a slow learner. As Clive James points out in his essay, having a dry desert interior and also having recent massive floods everywhere does not mean there is something “wrong’ with the weather. He adds,

As any Aboriginal might have told them had they known how to ask, the Australian climate is simply like that.

Beyond Dorothea MacKellar’s wisdom, we could also all look at own heritage during this year of the 400th anniversary of the King James Bible. The perfect answer for the green movement and our ABC warmists, is this famous passage about the Earth’s solar and hydrological cycles. It is a beautiful metaphor to illustrate the immanence of nature.

“The sun also ariseth and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to his place where he arose. The wind goeth toward the south, and turneth about unto the north; it whirleth about continually, and the wind returneth again according to his circuits. All the rivers run into the sea; yet the sea is not full; unto the place from whence the rivers come, thither they return again . . . The thing that hath been, it that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done.” (Ecclesiastes 1:5-9)

Carbon tax is now toast ?

March 6, 2011

A burned toast reduction scheme

After the previous Essential Media poll which suggested a catastrophe for Gillard, this one shows a swing of four points from before the Prime Minister’s lie to today. There is now an six percentage point difference in two party preferred votes.

Tomorrow’s Newspoll should be interesting.  Maybe then, the commentariat will try to explain it all away.

Carbon tax destined to be truly charred

March 5, 2011

All the polls and Sportsbet have so far been completely ignored

On the ABC Insiders this morning, one would have been forgiven for thinking that Julia Gillard’s lie was just a question of semantics and that Tony Abbott is on a hiding to nothing.

Not mentioned by any of the panelists was Mark Textor’s poll conducted over the past 72 hours, sampling 800 voters in the 20 most marginal seats in NSW. Admittedly this is Liberal Party research, but it is suggestive. According to Imre Salusinszky,

more than three-quarters of voters not convinced the measure will do anything to help the environment.

Again, it seems there is a blindness by the left commentariat — the same one that did not predict the demise of Kevin Rudd — to the possible future of Julia Gillard and her climate tax.

This comes on top of an Age internet poll — unreliable but a shock nevertheless — that a couple of weeks ago before Julia’s lie,  nearly 90 per cent of voters were against a carbon tax!

After the Prime Minister’s lie, came Sportsbet, showing a sudden reversal in Gillard’s fortunes, along with a Herald Sun poll with over 85 percent of people not supporting the carbon tax.

The panel today seemed all at sea explaining away the “people’s revolt” that is dividing Australia. They apparently don’t read polls. Even the latest poll from Essential Report, which suggests a massive fall for the ALP over Julia’s lying, was ignored. Perhaps Cassidy and his hop-along-to-the-same-tune panellists should heed The Australian’s Paul Kelly — no longer on Insiders — who specifically warns the media.

First, Gillard is breaking a clear and deliberate election promise. This is not a matter of semantics. There is no grey area here.

Media excuses during the past week suggesting Gillard is not really breaking a promise are craven polemics.

Kelly goes to lengths to examine the problems Gillard has created for herself over the carbon tax and the divide that is fracturing Australian politics. It is clear that the Insider panelists find it difficult to understand the issue at all. They prefer simply to barrack for the ALP. Kelly outlines an insider/outsider dichotomy to provide plausible answers for Australia’s deadlock over climate change.

Above all, it is governed by an insiders-outsiders split that shaped the August 2010 election result. The insiders, usually tertiary educated, are believers in climate change action while the outsiders are either disbelievers or doubters worried about the cost-of-living impact for an improbable dividend.

Above all, Labor is utterly convinced of its moral, policy and intellectual superiority to Abbott on carbon pricing, a belief it thinks will be vindicated yet a belief that alienates Labor from the outsider culture and at least half of Australia’s population.

The “television” Insiders should read Kelly’s article carefully. In the meantime, we can look with anticipation to the Newspoll due this Tuesday.

QandA bias confirmed !

March 4, 2011

And that’s not counting the panel

If there were any doubt about the bias in the ABC, and more particularly Q&A, it has been scotched. Caroline Overington reports in Media Diary of the interrogation of ABC boss Mark Scott by Eric Abetz at Senate Estimates last week.

The exchange makes for exquisite reading. It appears that in the shows numbered 15 to 40 — for which Senator Abetz had demanded an audit from the ABC — not one of the audiences ever had a majority of Coallition suporters.

Abetz: “I think most Australians would see the Labor-Greens alliance as being one side . . . it just seems strange that on not one single occasion has the Coalition had, even by accident, a majority of the audience. It is always a majority to Labor-Greens.”

The panel is another matter. There are only ever two conservatives facing three left inclined panelists. Malcolm Turnball on global warming issues doesn’t count, nor does Malcolm Fraser on pretty much all issues. With Tony “I ask the questions here” Jones the average becomes four to two.

As I have said here before, the ABC has no shame, and will continue showing its contempt for tax paying Australians until and unless it becomes beholden to its audience and not its own beaureaucy.