Coalition with comfortable majority

Nothing to lose. Half of us will be wrong

Everyone is having a go, so here goes.

Of course, it may be wishful thinking, but I have been saying for three weeks now that the Coalition will get in by a comfortable margin.

If the latest Newspoll is correct [Labor 50.2% : Coalition 49.8%] — it should be noted it has NOT been posted on the ABC election page — it would indicate, according to Antony Green’s House of Reps Calculator, that the Coalition will win 77 seats to Labor’s 70. This represents a swing of 2.5% to the Liberals.

However, given that the money for on-line betting is rushing to the Coalition, and that Newspoll itself suggest a last minute swing to the Coalition on top of so many undecided, then it would not surprise me if the swing were increased. A 50/50 two party preferred would equate to a swing of 2.7% yielding a distribution of seats in the Reps of 78/69.

For what it’s worth, I predict the Coalition will win with a majority of around ten seats at least.

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